ICE cars in 20 years

[Saito2]

For those into 1:1 cars, where do you see the future of internal combustion engine vehicles in 20 years? There is a part of me (which honestly probably won't win) that would like to simplify life by selling off some of my 1:1 cars to buy just one new car (in this case, a Toyota GR86). This raises larger questions concerning the changing automotive landscape. I could easily get 20 years use out of a car with the limited miles I drive but where will things be in 20 years? What will be the price of gas, parts availability etc.? I have some viewpoints as I've been paying attention to "the discussion" of electrification and the future of personal transportation but I don't want to taint anyone's initial response. Please try to keep political garbage out of it. This is a global issue. What do you all think? 

[Twinfan]

I think ICE cars will end up like horses - playthings for those who can afford them.  I suspect taxing them highly will make them expensive to use on the road, specialists will be required to maintain them etc etc.  Synthetic fuels will hopefully be readily available in the coming years, and even if they cost 2-3 times what petrol does now, I think enthusiasts will pay that for limited mileage per year.

I run a Porsche GT4 on road and track and my plan is to hopefully get another 10-15 years of fun out of it, having owned it from new since 2020.  By 2035 I'll be starting to look at retiring from work and I think the costs will be too prohibitive for me to run the car in my retirement years.  Therefore my plan is to enjoy the heck out of it for the next decade or so while I still can.

The biggest issue I can see coming down the line is social unacceptance of the use of fossil fuels.  I think petrol users will be heavily frowned upon by the masses, so it'll be a very niche enthusiast group who will still run them unless synthetic fuels can be proven to be carbon neutral.

[yogi-bear]

personally I think electric cars are inevitable, they are more efficient, simpler to make (less moving parts) and overall better for the environment (not trying to be political with that comment). There are several road blocks though, battery technology is good, but needs to be much better, power grids need lots of modification and adaption to the new uses and there needs to be more charging stations, but all of these will be overcome at some point. This will take time, and my understanding is this can't happen even in a couple of decades, so I think in 20 years there will still be a lot of ICE engines around. I would expect most of these will be hybrids though. People will still collect cars though, so ICE will never completely go away, but probably more highly regulated. Technology is also changing and I bet in 20 years self driving cars could start becoming the norm. The push from could be insurance companies, you'll pay smaller premiums if you car is self driving, (or maybe even higher premiums for cars that aren't self driving) and car manufacturers, if a car is completely self driving, they could be cheaper to make, (no controls etc have to be made).

[Doc Hollywood]

 I am pretty sure that electric cars will fade out after a couple of decades or sooner  to make way for hydrogen vehicles as the hydrogen is renewable and less damaging to the environment than mining all of the minerals out of the ground and making the lithium battery's also when the battery's die the car is scrap or replacement battery's are silly money. I think the concept of electric cars are good but the are not very green but whatever you do is not 100 percent green it always has a downside. The hydrogen powered vehicles seem more green as you could get existing vehicles with ICE engines converted over to hydrogen which means you save on all of the energy making a brand new car also when an engine wears out it is usually rebuildable were as battery's are more difficult to dispose of/recycle. This is just a theory I have about vehicles but something totally different could happen I guess only time will tell. I think ICE vehicles will be around for many more years yet but probably in less numbers compared to now.       

[Nikko85]

Although there are issues with mining for electric vehicles and batteries, they do offset the carbon well within their lifespan. They make more sense to me, they are simpler, more efficient and can be powered by renewables. Nothing we do is going to be completely green, but some things are more sustainable (or less sustainable) that others. New battery technology is also constantly developing, which might see the need for certain rare earth metals to be reduced, or batteries themselves are made to be recyclable. It's a tech that has pathways to sustainability, and in terms of GW is already more so that fossil fuels.

Hydrogen is also really interesting, a few people are my work are looking into that technology, and it's certainly got potential, particularly in long distance and commercial vehicles. Liquid hydrogen might be hard to install for the public, and does come with some risks (but then so does a stack of batteries or fuel, it's all very concentrated chemical energy after all).

As for ICE, it'll probably get phased out (in the UK it is) and has more charging and faster charging becomes available it will become the norm, with ICE for the wealthy collectors and sports cars. What I wonder will happen when a generation of people don't have nostalgia for the noise of a V8? Will we view it like steam engines now, a once cornerstone technology that's now a curio? Perhaps in the same way we don't want coal on our hands the next generation will just think they are noisy and dirty.

 

[markbt73]

Twenty years isn't a very long time, technologically. The first Prius is only 23 years old now. Hybrids are only now becoming mainstream, and plug-in hybrids are still fairly new. Fully electric cars make up something like 1-2% of new car sales in the US. It's a huge step, but still a drop in the bucket. And already we're seeing strain on the existing infrastructure - not in terms of power availability, but in terms of build-out of charging stations. That's going to take a long time to rectify.

Not only that, but average new car prices are stratospheric now. More people are holding on to older cars for longer, because they just can't afford to drop $40k on a new car. Combine that with ICE cars being more durable and reliable than ever, and I'm willing to bet that half of the new ICE or hybrid cars sold today will still be on the road in 20 years.

We've talked a lot about this over at the Autopian, both on the site and internally among the writers, and we're all pretty sure that the solution for the next 15-20 years is to get as many people into plug-in hybrids as possible. If you have a car that can be electric for the 50 miles a day that it's typically driven, but able to burn gasoline to go longer distances, that's the best compromise we're going to find for now, until the charging network catches up, and more affordable EVs become available. And there's  no reason that most "normal" cars on the road can't be some sort of plug-in hybrid. There's essentially no difference in the driving experience between an ICE-powered little crossover (which seems to be what most people want to drive these days) and a PHEV version of the same car. It's just that one uses half as much gasoline in normal use.

As for enthusiasts? I would guess that purely ICE-powered fun cars, along with manual gearboxes and carburetors, will die off with our generation. In 20 years, I'll be 71, and probably past my prime in terms of crawling under cars to fix things (it's already pretty difficult). All the more reason to enjoy them now, I suppose. Nobody is going to want them after we're gone.

For now, I just moved to a semi-rural area, without much population density or traffic, where the air is clean and gasoline is reasonably cheap. I don't commute anymore, so any driving I do is to run errands or for fun. I'll probably only average a few thousand miles a year total. So I'm just going to enjoy my little sports car, and my beat-up old truck, and my Hemi, and not worry about it too much.

[BuggyDad]

Quite a lot of moving parts I think, when one looks at the long term. Certainly I agree that the hydrogen vs BEV race has ways to go. Once we have surplus renewable electricity, hydrogen becomes the lower impact per mile option, hopefully the conversion of electricity to H becomes more efficient too. And otherwise there isn't that much technological advancement needed to deliver it. At the same time, hopefully battery technology becomes greener, cheaper, lighter and all the rest of it, and development in that direction seems currently have a lot of people/money going at it. Could become more of a race between H & BEV. On the margins, once green H becomes a goer at scale, a well managed system will probably deploy it to bigger vehicles first though, because they need the energy density/big capacity more than cars and probably are the area where H will represent the bigger purchase cost saving . And I wonder whether/how much will go into things other than transport (the gas grid - there are problems but it's happening, a bit). 

We saw biofuels as a bigger part of the future when I worked in renewables (before 06-15), than they seem to have subsequently become, for reasons I'm not that well abreast of in detail. 

Then there's the potential for a changing landscape of personal transport, public transport, urban vs rural, the culture of the car to which we're so wedded etc etc. Inertia plays a big part but there will be change. 

On inertia, it's notable I think that petrol/diesel has been perhaps more protected from inflation than folk realised. I bought an EV in 2019. Following Covid/Putin/etc, while folk were getting their knickers in a twist about an increase in the price of UK fuel of about 30%, quietly my electricity cost went up 300%. Now it's down to nearly double 2019 prices, fuel is back to pretty close to 2019 prices.

A slight tangent, but a friend's child is just starting driving lessons and they couldn't find availability for manual lessons, auto being more available. Historically nearly no-one here would learn in an auto because even if you then drove one you'd still want the licence to drive a manual. If you were in their shoes, would you care any more? 

[wtcc5]

As @markbt73 said, 20 years isn’t so long away. Gas prices in Germany will be close to 10€/L then, but ice‘s will still be a lot around. I plan to run my 2016 BMW 440i six cylinder until it can’t be repaired anymore. Around that time (2044) it will be an Oldtimer and cost less tax 

Right now, I would definitely go for another gas car, if I would need a new car. I still think, that there will be a breakthrough in battery technology in the next five years, which will change a lot for the industry and I would wait for that. The actual e-cars are too heavy and in Germany used e-cars don’t sell well, because nobody wants to deal with old batteries (performance loss and expensive to replace)…

[BuggyDad]

51 minutes ago, markbt73 said:

Hybrids are only now becoming mainstream, and plug-in hybrids are still fairly new. Fully electric cars make up something like 1-2% of new car sales in the US. It's a huge step, but still a drop in the bucket. And already we're seeing strain on the existing infrastructure - not in terms of power availability, but in terms of build-out of charging stations. That's going to take a long time to rectify.

True but I think there's quite a big difference between the US and most of the rest of the world in many things car related. Current UK sales figures are apparently (just a quick Google) 16% EV, 8% PHEV, with mild hybrids a similar number to the PHEVs. I would guess the UK to be behind the rest of Europe too, although I haven't looked. You don't see much but BEVs in Norway, although that's an outlier which has implemented some pretty extreme taxes/breaks. I did read that UK EV sales have slowed up but I haven't seen numbers. 

51 minutes ago, markbt73 said:

get as many people into plug-in hybrids as possible. If you have a car that can be electric for the 50 miles a day that it's typically driven, but able to burn gasoline to go longer distances, that's the best compromise we're going to find for now

I recall an interesting presentation, quite a few years ago now, by a director of Toyota I think it was, making just this point. My Google-fu is weak though. Seems they then pretty much went all-in on this path. It is a logical standpoint from a market perspective and from the perspective of most users and was a shrewd observation back then, I think. 

Me, I have an unusual usage pattern - a lot of 200 mile journeys, so my longer journeys account for a higher %age of miles, and I also just felt I wanted to invest the bit of extra ££ into doing this a bit better, so I got a BEV. That usage pattern uses a biggish battery to the full (near enough) but only rarely needs a public charge point. We also have an ICE van which doesn't do many miles, but ownership of that is more a result of me simply not changing cars often, to keep costs down. 

That reminds me, an aspect of BEV rollout is that if you have a driveway your charging is 90% at home, not much burden on or need for public charging. Fine if you're lucky to have that, somewhat painful otherwise. So I think a big area to unlock is overnight on-street slow charging, </=7kw. Not so much a burden on networks in power terms but a big question on what is it, how to roll it out etc. 

[BuggyDad]

58 minutes ago, wtcc5 said:

 used e-cars don’t sell well, because nobody wants to deal with old batteries (performance loss and expensive to replace)…

Yeah they need an answer to this too. My EV's done 100k miles and is good, but I've been careful to follow best practice for charging its whole life. I think the manufacturers need to be able to run off a detailed report on the car's usage or its battery condition, that is seen as reliable and covering all bases. In theory EVs should have a long lifespan but (rightly I think) people aren't ready to bet on that. You can kind of do this with a Tesla but I think it just tells you how much real capacity it has now, I don't know that that indicates how much life is left in it or whether it's in good condition in every regard. 

I suspect my car would be relatively hard to sell for good value at the mileage it has for the same reason, but then I haven't sold cars of this age historically, because I've tended to figure they'd done their deprecating but still have life left. I still think the same on this one. I know I could get a battery failure, and I wonder what I'll do if I do - I might well spend big bucks (although I have no idea the cost) to replace the battery because I would hope that'd get me many years more life out of it. 

[Twinfan]

There has been recent talk of BEV U-turns, for example:

https://www.motor1.com/news/706930/toyota-developing-new-combustion-engines/

[SlideWRX]

There have been some bumps in the road to EV adoption lately, but it is likely to be only a year or two.  Most manufacturers cut out their 'cheap' models during Covid due to electronic chip supply issues, and no-one wants to go back to the poor margins on cheaper vehicles.  China is fine with it though, and will bring in the cheap stuff, so everyone is scrambling to keep market share while badmouthing China to delay their entry/raise tariffs.  A lot of political double talk is going to to make things seem worse/better than they are.  

For the US at least, Electric is still low volume, around 10%. Until more cheaper options come on the market it will stay low.  Projections seem to vary wildly, but there will likely be a worldwide 50%gas/50%electric crossover around ~2035, and the US much later.  That means in 10 years a LOT of gas vehicles will still be produced, and on average they are lasting 12+ years.  That means there will still be a large gas delivery economy and gas cars will still be very commonplace in 2040.

In terms of batteries, there seem to be a lot of solid state replacements in the works that double range for the given weight/space, and reduce cost. They actually seem to be scaling up real batteries, so not just a pipe dream but actual products. They also have longer lifetimes and degrade less between charges, so used cars will be more desirable.  Some/most still use a significant amount of Lithium.  At least for the non-mobile space there are a lot of much cheaper (but heavier/bigger) options for the grid under development, so lithium will only be part of the worldwide solution.

Hydrogen still has a storage problem - how much one can store in a vehicle.  Hydrogen tanks are very high pressure and don't store enough to be competitive right now - they need some major advancement on that.  They could be a wild card though.

Some other things that could affect this are populations - Japan and China are both officially shrinking.  The US would be shrinking except for immigration!

Solar production - it could be used to create hydrogen, or even gasoline equivalents! At some point (practically beyond 2050 I think) gasoline manufacturing(NOT refining from oil) may become carbon neutral...  Solar production is scaling up MASSIVELY.

Solid state battery development - they are starting to ramp up production of these, and a breakthrough could mean every car could have 500 mile (800km) range and 5 minute charging, which does make gas powered cars redundant, even for road trips.

Plug In Hybrids (PHEV) & Range Extended Electric Vehicles(REEV) will take a while to replace 'plain' gas engines.

 

In regards to getting a single car now for the next 20 years, go for it.  If you are worried about the carbon footprint, find a reputable carbon offset and put money into that.  Gas powered cars will be around for a long time.

[Alex97]

We'll have a form of electric cars however not in the same format we currently have.

Currently electric cars are failing and the manufacturers know that which is why their offering zero percent finance and lot of insensitives to get buyers into them. The 2nd hand market is also terrible, within the first few years they depreciate massively (way more than ICE cars) so the potential savings is wiped out. 

 

When Honda and Toyota are re looking at the ICE after being some of the first big companies to offer electric cars (full electric or hybrid) you know that they've seen the way through market is going and where technology is heading. 

 

I think we'll see some form electric motor that's powered by hydrogen or eco fuel rather than an on board battery. 

[Kowalski86]

Horses and Model Ts are still around and used by hobbyists, I don't see ICE cars going away anytime soon.

What Id like to see is the industry adopt hydrogen cars, I could even see transplants being a thing where people with old ICE cars will be able to swap in hydrogen motors (ain't that a crazy "green" idea, retrofitting old cars instead of scrapping them!).

Electric cars are a good idea, the problem is that the tech isn't there yet and they were rushed to the market as seemingly disposable luxury toys. Hybrids seem like a better middle-ground between electric and gas.

[LongRat]

In my view there will be a tipping point when battery energy density reaches something around double what we currently have.  At that point, the continued rate of fast charger installations will stop almost totally, because you will never have to charge in the daytime or mid-journey.  Hydrogen ICE will never have enough of either range or safety to do anything at all, but mainly are unlikely to ever be cost-competitive.  Fuel cells don't make any sense at this tiny scale no matter how efficient they are, because the game is already lost before the car starts moving.  If we had an excess of renewable power that required storing, I think you would do it at big scale, never into a tiny vehicle.  This is what they are starting to do in the Scottish Isles.  For fixed installations or slow and heavy movement I can see lots of potential with them.

So I think in 2044 there will be very little but BEVs around, with enthusiasts using ICE and petrol.  The amount of expertise and knowledge needed to run ICE to a good level might end up being the limiting factor for them in the longer term.  If you think about how engine knowledge, terminology etc is ingrained into society now and what we would do if that wasn't the case, cars are simply too complex and fine-tuned to be sustainable.  Even enthusiasts would likely get fed up when they can't work out an issue, and the people that maintained them back in the day are long gone.

[Alex97]

10 minutes ago, Kowalski86 said:

swap in hydrogen motors

I doubt that, many cars are now written off due to it not being worth repairing them when the damage is minor. The economics of swapping the ICE with something else would cost too much. This is where eco fuels will come in, part of the 2026 F1 regulations are to use eco fuels that work in normal cars, this rule attracted a lot of attention from big manufacturers. 

 

 

[Juggular]

I agree with @Twinfan that ICE will become horse buggies of the past. But maybe not in 20 years (in the US).  

I drive about 2500 miles a year.  That's like 1/4th of the distance people drive in US.  It's been paid off 15 years ago. (As far as I'm concerned, during the 5 years of payment, it wasn't entirely mine. After paying off, it's finally mine.)  Unless it breaks down badly, it makes no sense for us to buy anything new, just to drive 3 miles a day.  People like us would keep their existing ICEs for a long time.  But I'd love to get rid of even $600 gasoline price a year and replace it with $200 electric bills a year (or none at all with a solar panel).  

But as we all know, ICEs are inherently inefficient.  The pistons have to turn around and go backward all the time.  Biological beings like us have to swing arms and legs back and forth, but mechanical things don't have to.  

That's how rotary engine came to be.  No going back and forth.  But sealing is a problem.  Unlike the piston rings that stops twice, the seal in the rotary engine just keeps going in one direction (and as fast as the RPM). 

Electric motor has no such problems.  It's not exposed to great heat like gas explosion. It can go as fast as ESC switches magnetism and bearings can withstand.  

ICE is using 30-45% of the energy. More than half is gone with heat and friction.  Brushless motors are 90% efficient.  Even brushed motors are 80% efficient.  A 20 year old engineering student (who'd design cars 20 years down the road) looking at it with purely mechanical views in 2024, ICE doesn't make a lot of sense.  Old guys like us tend to mistrust "golf carts." (even as we run small electric cars.) 

But for 20 year old students?  The EV company, Tesla, existed before they were even born.  They'd be like, "I don't know why old people insist on buying cars that need oil and fluid changes, not to mention stinky, polluting and expensive to run. They really love giving money to oil companies."  (I only spend $600 a year for gasoline. But for most people, it's $3000+ a year.)  ICE makes no sense. 

The only question is the battery.  But it gets better.  Department of Energy says 2022 batteries are 90% cheaper than what it used to cost in 2008 (when Tesla was a 5 year old company).  Manufacturing increases year to year (like 25%).  New batteries are being developed.  So price, quantity, and quality are all getting better.  So I hope in 20 years more than half the cars sold would be EVs. It might be sooner elsewhere, because the US tend to be slow in adapting new technologies (even as Tesla started the trend).  

 

[yogi-bear]

Hydrogen is great, but I can't see it being adopted by anyone other than heavy industry. Hydrogen's biggest issue is storage and transportation. 

Another issue on hydrogen vs electric, someone has to build all the charging stations or all the hydrogen fuelling stations. No one I can see is putting serious effort in making Hydrogen fuelling stations for cars, but charging stations for electric cars are actively being worked on. Also you can charge a car at home, plus you can use your electric car as a battery backup to your house. So I think electric will this race and petrol stations will become something completely different or go away. 

[Jonathon Gillham]

I think this debate is a distraction from the real issue, mentioned by @Saito2 in his first post. The future of personal transportation. The energy source becomes irrelevant if we have to completely change our behaviour.

If we assume that our lifestyle will carry on pretty much unchanged for the next 20 years which most people (media, politicians etc) seem to, then there will be a transition to hybrid then BEV, and I expect ICE still around but more a hobby thing.

However, a group of scientists are saying we must change our ways, and if we don't then mother nature will do it for us. On balance thats probably more likely than us continuing as we are. Politically its getting difficult too, with the sheer amounts of money required to build and maintain the infrastructure required for everyone to have a quarter acre section and car per adult. In NZ we need a huge investment in public transport (ironcially) to enable the roads to flow freely for private cars, and thats not likely so we'll just have congestion and people choosing to work from home or leave the city.

Pre-ww2 our farmers didnt need to drive 500kms every day so I'm sure they can adapt. Its funny to see the big utes(for us Kiwis and Aussies) / trucks (for those in North America) (and I assume in the UK its still the Reliant Robin)  which are used to drive to the supermarket, when builders can get by fine with an old Honda Integra or Toyota 86.

Personally we've taken a cautious approach, second hand Nissan Leaf as our city commuter, my efficient (but still fun) 2l turbo Jaguar XF wagon for long trips and, ahem, towing the climate friendly race car... The leaf is really good fun in the city though, like a go kart, beats the XF around town for fun.

[Wooders28]

Personally , it's not the propulsion source that's my main worry.

With self driving tech , ISA and the manual gearbox becoming less and less in the favour of grandad boxes (even a few years back, I had to go hours over the border, just to get the car I wanted , as there's was only that spec available with a manual in the UK!! 😳), it's the actual pleasure of driving that'll disappear.

Traditional 'car guys' are starting to be a thing of the past. I work in maintenance, and the team I work with, we can all rebuild gearboxes, pumps, overall hydraulic cylinders etc, but no one else fits their own brake pads, let alone any of the taxing stuff, and would happily work a Saturday morning, and pay for someone else to do it, which just 🤯

As long as they can get in it, arrive where they want to go, they seem to be happy. Which seems to have resulted, in a work car park full of fugly SUV type things....🙈 (but there are one or 2 that aren't, but they aren't manual, and sound like they're passing wind when changing gear, even though they think it sounds cool.....snap crackle pop🤮)

With the ISA now legally required on all new cars (intelligent Speed Assist), driver control is starting to be ,urm, controlled, yes everyone should be doing 70mph on a motorway , but do I want the GPS in my car stopping me going slightly quicker?

(Then there's the 'Geo Fencing' ,but not sure if I'm venturing into political...) 

A mate has a few year old, performance Volvo, and it has recently done an auto update (via his mobile?), and now restricted to 112mph (i know i know, should be going above 70, and how did he find out,but...) , so the tech is already been installed for a while, and probably why the government passed a law a few years ago, making it a criminal offence, to alter a cars engine management system (I believe there's been heavy fines over the pond, with companies selling aftermarket ECU'S?) 

I'm probably what you would class as a, car guy, but fear I've seen cars as I love them, become a thing of the past, become just , a thing, that's 'soul'  purpose, is a workhorse, just to get you from A to B..

 

[Twinfan]

Yep, new cars will basically become like fridges. All doing the same job with slightly different branding.

The days of deciding between a supercharged V8 or a turbo 4 or a flat six or a whatever are all long gone!

[Wooders28]

10 hours ago, Twinfan said:

Yep, new cars will basically become like fridges. All doing the same job with slightly different branding.

I was going to say, I watched this recently , but it was a year ago...😬

(He's one of the only youtube channels I watch tbh)

 

On 6/25/2024 at 9:37 PM, yogi-bear said:

Hydrogen's biggest issue is storage and transportation. 

I had in my head, one of the main issues, it's not very energy efficient to extract the Hydrogen?  (Quick Google, it takes 55kwh of power, to produce 1kg of hydrogen, which would get you around 60miles. 55kwh of actual electricity would get you around 130miles) 

 

On 6/26/2024 at 8:20 PM, Jonathon Gillham said:

Pre-ww2 our farmers didnt need to drive 500kms every day so I'm sure they can adapt

Nope, but we've been (well, the UK anyway..), led into loosing everything local. Shopping is now in purpose built, out of town , shopping centres (malls?), industry in decline (cheaper overseas manufacturering) and even dentist are out of town, as the business rates/costs are so much less. I used to be able to walk to work, walk to the farm shop at the top of the road, but the farm is now a housing estate, the all the industry shut down (why I'm now living in another country!).

 

On 6/26/2024 at 8:20 PM, Jonathon Gillham said:

and I assume in the UK its still the Reliant Robin)  

That would be cool!!

But ,no, unfortunately just soulless boxes, where if you removed the badge, you'd have absolutely no idea what car manufacturer it was....tbh, I've not seen one on the road, for probably 30yrs.

 

On 6/26/2024 at 8:20 PM, Jonathon Gillham said:

need a huge investment in public transport (ironcially)

Ironically indeed, as in the '60's ,the UK had the 'Beeching Report'....

His report meant the closure of over 2300 train stations (rural communities mostly), and over 5000 miles of trainline lost, to save cost..

Now it's only really the big cities that have decent public transport, for the rest of us, its a car (or get wet on a motorbike).