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Wandy

The End Is Nigh

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....for the supply of vintage spare parts from ebay sellers anyway.

Anyone else finding this to be the case? I have emailed several sellers asking if they have stuff that they are planning on listing but they have all pretty much said the same thing, ie the vintage stock has finally all but gone and the chances of finding any more around the globe are practically Nil.

Sad times but, hey, it's been a great 10 years or so. I find myself feeling very nostalgic about the days of 2004 to 2007 now. :(

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I've struggled with a few parts - steering rod for Avante 2001/Egress - in the end i went for an alternative, then found a seller who had 10, so bought two just in case !

I've been trying to get the rubber rings for the Hicap damper mounting (again for A2K1) - its used on wing mirrors on other models - I had an order placed with one online seller, only to be told it wasn't available; switched to another seller and still waiting - will be ca 12 weeks from order placement to expected delivery. In this case it appears to be delays in shipping from Tamiya HQ

I guess its inevitable though - eBay has saved a lot of old broken cars from the refuse dump, and has for a while been a good source of used cars / parts. Eventually though those wrecks lurking at the back of garages will also run out :(

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There is a theory floating around these parts that the vintage parts are now being hoarded by sellers because of the abundance of re-release items that will do the same job, but I'm not convinced.

Although I have no doubt that individual enthusisasts such as people here on TC do have parts that they are holding back because of the scarcity the same can not be said of ebay sellers. The great thing I have always found about those sellers is that they have largely ignored the sometimes insane prices that bits can command and instead have sold them at reasonable prices, hence only recently stuff like original Hotshot F & G parts were selling for reasonable prices. With this in mind there is no reason for the ebay sellers to withold the vintage parts so if they are all saying that they are now all gone then I believe them.

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I agree Wandy, that the vintage parts are drying up.

However, I've not tended to monitor particular sellers nor ask if they have parts. Not usually. And that's because I feel it's been many years since I saw a seller who had such a diverse range of old parts. Generally those regular sellers have had mostly re-release parts, and just smattering of vintage items among those. And they never have the really rare vintage items.

2004-2007 was good times. But 1999-2004 was even better for parts. In 2000 I bought 5 Hotshot manual MSCs for about $20. They're now worth $50-$80 each. The early days of eBay are definitely a time to be nostalgic about.

As for hoarding, I have no doubt some collectors have done this. I have. But like you, I doubt sellers would bother. There is still demand for original parts, as this topic can attest :)

To counter-argue this topic however, I have seen quite a few NIB original kits sell cheaply lately. By cheap, I mean way cheaper than the usual BIN price. And much cheaper than they used to sell for, before re-releases.

It amazes me actually. Parts have dried up, but many classic buggy kits from the 1980s are still in the $200-$600 range. Why bother trying to restore a car for near the cost of a whole, original, brand new kit?

cheers,

H.

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The sellers that do have some vintage stock left are the usual suspects who have been delivering the goods for the last 10 years but after email conversations with them I have been left in no doubt that these are the end days of vintage parts supply. Its a shame but it had to happen eventually and infact I'm surprised that it has taken this long. 10 years is a long time of constant supplying and I guess it just goes to show how much was actually dished out by Shizuoka back in the day.

I got back into the game in 2004 and it was brilliant, so God only knows how much fun there was to be had in the 5 years previous. In 2004 though anything & everything was abundantly available, so long as it had actually been supplied by Tamiya as a kit or spare part at some point in time. Even if there was a dry spell of waiting for something to pop up you just knew that the wait would be no longer than a week or two. Now it can be a year or three before what you want shows up and that situation is only going to get worse.

The 1980s may have been the golden era for RC in general but there is no doubt in my mind that the last 10 years have been the true golden era in particular for Tamiya fans. A social medium to share your love of the hobby with fellow enthusiasts all day and everyday, parts much more easily available than back in the day and the joy of reliving your teenage years as all of your favourite cars were re-released by the company. Hopefully that latter part is going to continue for a few more years yet.

There have been kits going for decent prices lately but I think that is more to do with the ebb & flow of the market which happens quite frequently. You can buy/sell/watch stuff on ebay sometimes and there will be no takers and/or it goes for peanuts, then in the following weeks you will watch the same bits have a mountain of bids and it goes for silly money. As ever on ebay it's just about being in the right place in the right time. I agree though that it is now much more cost effective and productive to simply buy a whole kit/new built if you want a vintage model as the chances of you being able to find all of the individual parts at all, let alone for a reasonable price are very slim indeed.

Anyone from now on wanting to build a shelf queen vintage model through ebay will almost certainly have to compromise and build a hybrid consisting of vintage and re-release parts. For instance a Hotshot might have the original chassis and rollcage but the rest of it will be 2007 spec. The thing to be wary of when buying cars on ebay in the future will be making sure you get plenty of photographic evidence of important areas of the car before buying.

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I've been trying to get the rubber rings for the Hicap damper mounting (again for A2K1) - its used on wing mirrors on other models - I had an order placed with one online seller, only to be told it wasn't available; switched to another seller and still waiting - will be ca 12 weeks from order placement to expected delivery. In this case it appears to be delays in shipping from Tamiya HQ

You mean these? i got a set there

have been preparing for when the well dries up. :rolleyes:

DSC00717.jpg

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It's not just the parts for really old cars. Parts for vehicles like the TXT-1 are becoming scarcer and more expensive as well. I've also noticed that there seems to be fewer second hand cars being sold, and they are going for more money. There are also fewer people stocking tanks than a few years ago (I guess the tanks don't sell so well now the pound is weak.). I don't think I've ever seen a 2nd hand panther or Jagdpanther for sale on ebay, and spare parts are few and far between.

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if Tamiya is smart enough to ape Mercedes, they'd open an international

"Heritage Parts desk" to cater for discontinued spareparts demand

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There have been kits going for decent prices lately but I think that is more to do with the ebb & flow of the market which happens quite frequently.

Sometimes I wonder if there has been a general drop in demand for vintage items that goes beyond the drops caused by the re-releases. My proof being that items that haven't even been re-released appear to have either remained static in value for a long time, or even fallen in value.

Bidding wars are more rare these days. When was the last time you saw people fight for something vintage R/C related, and push it to over $2-$3000? It's more uncommon than it used to be, IMHO. Items now often sell for less than you expect, if they are up for bidding. And there is a yawning gap now between the BIN prices of vintage R/C kits, and the actual final bid prices on auctions with no reserve.

This is because those BIN prices are based more on memories of high prices 4+ years ago, and assumptions that those prices are still the "going rate". Those people still trying to sell rare cars at extremely high BIN prices almost never sell those cars - the kits are listed again and again and again on eBay, and sit there for (in some cases) years.

In recent months, I have seen quite a few NIB Wild Willy kits listed - maybe 4 or 5. I think they are still listed. One was listed as being the short-wheelbase version, for over US$3000. Another was listed at over $2000. Others have been sitting at the $1000-$1500 range. I have not seen any of them sell.

Then finally, a collector (well known here) recently sold off a load of his kits, and did the honorable thing by starting them all at $1 with no reserve. This offered a chance not only for many people to win old kits at fair market prices, but for everyone to see the current demand and value for many old classics. The Wild Willy kit sold for about US$780.

For such a classic kit, this seems a sure sign to me that demand is now below peak level, because for some years the value of a NIB Wild Willy had been steady at around ~$1000. The sellers who are offering this kit for anything more than $1000, are simply detached from reality. The demand just isn't there.

What's more, I'd say that just about every kit sold by that collector sold for less than I was expecting - the Cheetah went for $500-something, the Supershot went for $500-something. Cars that were sure to sell for $1000+ just a few years ago.So as I was saying, I suspect the re-releases aren't the only cause of the decline, and this isn't just a temporary lull. I reckon the peak of vintage Tamiya collecting is well and truly over - as a general rule. Let's face it, there are a finite number of 1980s-era, 30-40 year old men (who love RC) in the world. Most of us now have all the cars we ever wanted. Many old collectors have quit visiting Tamiyaclub. I think the hysteria and excitement has faded. The flow of new people coming online and paying top dollar for lost toys from their youth, has dwindled. Almost everybody in the world who was ever going to do that, has now done it. And as a result, values for many things will no longer climb (beyond inflation). That's my theory anyway :)

Anyone from now on wanting to build a shelf queen vintage model through ebay will almost certainly have to compromise and build a hybrid consisting of vintage and re-release parts. For instance a Hotshot might have the original chassis and rollcage but the rest of it will be 2007 spec. The thing to be wary of when buying cars on ebay in the future will be making sure you get plenty of photographic evidence of important areas of the car before buying.

This is very true. I must admit, I have been thinking for several years that the sooner I collect all the genuine vintage stuff I want, the better, simply so as to not have to navigate the minefield of re-release parts being passed off as original parts.

cheers,

H.

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When ebay change the search system a lot of parts disapeared,before I would see parts listed in Germany even if the sold only to Germany. Now all i get is a few hits even if I used international option.

There are still a ton of parts here in Japan,but they are not worth getting out of bed and looking for. re releases have made a lot of parts less valueable.or driven money away from old parts for new kits.

If you really want old parts try trading with people that want to trade.

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if Tamiya is smart enough to ape Mercedes, they'd open an international

"Heritage Parts desk" to cater for discontinued spareparts demand

Thats basically what one of the birds they killed with re releases

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Sometimes I wonder if there has been a general drop in demand for vintage items that goes beyond the drops caused by the re-releases. My proof being that items that haven't even been re-released appear to have either remained static in value for a long time, or even fallen in value.

There has definitely been a drop in demand and, as you say, the vintage scene has definitely gone past it's peak. The re-releases have played a major part in this, which I don't think is a bad thing, but it's not the only reason. Kits & parts are in very short supply, and when they do become available they are generally expensively listed on a BIN only. Then you have the factor that it is now undeniably true that Tamiya can easily re-release whatever they want so people are holding back from buying or selling anything vintage because they might pay too much for/sell for too little a specific kit or part. Another factor that is creeping in now though is that some people are approaching a time in their life when they have new responsibilities, hitting their forties and starting families and/or needing to invest cash into their domestic life, hence one of the first luxury things that can be sold to fund it will be the expensive toys that are collecting dust in a cupboard or on the shelf. Some other collectors are disillusioned by the re-releases, believing that they have devalued both financially & emotionally their vintage clobber and for that reason are considering getting out. Finally you have the state of the economy. People simply have less money to spend and currencies are worth less against the dollar than they used to be, together with the fact that rising oil prices have also increased shipping charges. Ebay haven't helped either by taking more money from people when they sell an item. Factor in all of these things that were not the case 5 or 6 years ago and it's little wonder that the scene isn't as intense as it once was.

Bidding wars are more rare these days. When was the last time you saw people fight for something vintage R/C related, and push it to over $2-$3000? It's more uncommon than it used to be, IMHO. Items now often sell for less than you expect, if they are up for bidding. And there is a yawning gap now between the BIN prices of vintage R/C kits, and the actual final bid prices on auctions with no reserve.

This is because those BIN prices are based more on memories of high prices 4+ years ago, and assumptions that those prices are still the "going rate". Those people still trying to sell rare cars at extremely high BIN prices almost never sell those cars - the kits are listed again and again and again on eBay, and sit there for (in some cases) years.

Definitely true, but again I don't see this as a bad thing. An increasing amount of greed has crept into the scene over the years with people not only asking prices similar to the peak valuations of years gone by but actually adding on even more. At the end of the day those old prices were driven by the market, in auction conditions usually, and not on BINs. When a kit does, on the odd occasion, become available on auction the market is now showing that kits are worth much less than what sellers actually ask for them on a BIN. Yet they still seem to think that those kits will easily sell? I'm not sure if they actually realise it but the people that they are now aiming their kits at are not the regular bloke on the street but those with wealth and that is a shame IMO.

In recent months, I have seen quite a few NIB Wild Willy kits listed - maybe 4 or 5. I think they are still listed. One was listed as being the short-wheelbase version, for over US$3000. Another was listed at over $2000. Others have been sitting at the $1000-$1500 range. I have not seen any of them sell.

Then finally, a collector (well known here) recently sold off a load of his kits, and did the honorable thing by starting them all at $1 with no reserve. This offered a chance not only for many people to win old kits at fair market prices, but for everyone to see the current demand and value for many old classics. The Wild Willy kit sold for about US$780.

For such a classic kit, this seems a sure sign to me that demand is now below peak level, because for some years the value of a NIB Wild Willy had been steady at around ~$1000. The sellers who are offering this kit for anything more than $1000, are simply detached from reality. The demand just isn't there.

I've noticed those Wild Willys too and they have been there for a long time now without selling so you would think that they would take the hint. The only two kits that seem to have bucked the trend and are still worth what they were in the peak years are the Blazing Blazer and Hilux as when a collector on here recently sold almost their entire collection it was those two that fetched the price similar to the days of ~2005. Maybe it is still considered unlikely that those two will be re-released. Personally I wouldn't rule it out and think there is a 50/50 chance.

I suspect the re-releases aren't the only cause of the decline, and this isn't just a temporary lull. I reckon the peak of vintage Tamiya collecting is well and truly over - as a general rule. Let's face it, there are a finite number of 1980s-era, 30-40 year old men (who love RC) in the world. Most of us now have all the cars we ever wanted. Many old collectors have quit visiting Tamiyaclub. I think the hysteria and excitement has faded. The flow of new people coming online and paying top dollar for lost toys from their youth, has dwindled. Almost everybody in the world who was ever going to do that, has now done it. And as a result, values for many things will no longer climb (beyond inflation). That's my theory anyway.

Again, I agree. The halcyon days are now over but I certainly don't see it as a sign that the hobby is dying. A level of normality has been injected into it by all of the re-releases together with members moving on in their lives but I don't see those who have been part of this over the last 10 or so years losing interest for life. I predict more re-releases over the next few years and a further lull in the commanding price and availablity of vintage gear. Then after that I see the old guard trying to get back into it and the whole process of 1999 to 2005 starting all over again. The only problem will be that there will be a whole lot less spare vintage parts available so the prices that they go for may make the old prices look like chicken feed. For instance in 10 years time I can see vintage Hotshot bits going for more than £100 each.

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If restoring and collecting vintage Tamiya is mostly driven by reliving our teenage years, look at what today's teens or early 20-somethings are playing with. I see a lot of trucks and scalers in the popular RC magazines. In the broader context of the overall RC industry, the next wave of nostalgia may very well be restoring Slashes, Rustlers, E-maxxes, Savages, Wheely Kings, etc. Tamiya appeals to people who like to build kits and appreciate fine details; I think the market has shifted and the hot sellers of today or even 5 years ago will be candidates for restoration/collection in 10 to 20 years. The NIB Slash or Wheely King eventually may be worth more to most people than a Desert Fielder or Lunch Box just because these are the vehicles generating memories for today's younger people.

Don't get me wrong -- in my collection I own more Tamiya than the other brands combined. I'm just trying to think through what has fueled the Tamiya vintage and re-release scene. Tamiya knows how much they sold of each original kit, and they know the tendency of people to get nostalgic at certain times in life. There's probably a good business case for each re-release, and a good business reason why certain re-releases have not occurred. I'd have to think Traxxas will have their day in another 10-20 years when people reflect on their Slashes. Traxxas will know how much they sold of the original RTR, the tendency of people to get nostalgic, and might be able to generate a good business case to re-release the Slash or a series of restoration parts.

Look at how Tamiya is competing and selling today, and that should provide some insight into the future vintage RC scene...

-Paul

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If restoring and collecting vintage Tamiya is mostly driven by reliving our teenage years, look at what today's teens or early 20-somethings are playing with. I see a lot of trucks and scalers in the popular RC magazines. In the broader context of the overall RC industry, the next wave of nostalgia may very well be restoring Slashes, Rustlers, E-maxxes, Savages, Wheely Kings, etc. Tamiya appeals to people who like to build kits and appreciate fine details; I think the market has shifted and the hot sellers of today or even 5 years ago will be candidates for restoration/collection in 10 to 20 years. The NIB Slash or Wheely King eventually may be worth more to most people than a Desert Fielder or Lunch Box just because these are the vehicles generating memories for today's younger people.

Don't get me wrong -- in my collection I own more Tamiya than the other brands combined. I'm just trying to think through what has fueled the Tamiya vintage and re-release scene. Tamiya knows how much they sold of each original kit, and they know the tendency of people to get nostalgic at certain times in life. There's probably a good business case for each re-release, and a good business reason why certain re-releases have not occurred. I'd have to think Traxxas will have their day in another 10-20 years when people reflect on their Slashes. Traxxas will know how much they sold of the original RTR, the tendency of people to get nostalgic, and might be able to generate a good business case to re-release the Slash or a series of restoration parts.

Look at how Tamiya is competing and selling today, and that should provide some insight into the future vintage RC scene...

-Paul

I don't see any other manufacturers copying tamiya and re-releasing models in the future. If anyone was going to do this, surely Kyosho would have re-released some of their 80s classics by now. Tamiya have proven there is a business case for doing so, but perhaps kyosho view their market image or customer base differently.

One simple market barometer for me that 'the end is nigh' on vintage parts is what's now sold by JR-RC on eBay. I've bought literally hundreds of kits and parts over a 6 or 7 year period since the mid-2000's, and in the last year or two there has been a noticable shift in what he now sells i.e. no longer just selling Tamiya, but increasingly 'Japanese collectibles' like dolls and other stuff etc. he's had to shift focus no doubt to keep the business sustainable as 'old tamiya' won't do this anymore. Very few vintage parts or kits get listed nowadays, it's mainly new parts and parted-out new kits. 5 years ago his shop would have looked completely different - a good selection of vintage kits and parts.

I've noticed this as well. It is also noticeable that there is not even an large supply of parts from current models. I tried to get some lightweight wheels and a supershot underguard from the recent re-release. Managed to get them from JR-RC about 2 months ago, but have not seen him relist the parts again since then. I've also noticed that he stopped selling tamiya tanks quite some time ago.

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