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Vintage Prices In The Future

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Do you think prices of vintage kits will continue to rise in the future, or when the current generation that grew up in the 80’s pass, there will be less interest in vintage Tamiya and prices will fall?

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I think in some cases this might happen (purely opinion). It makes sense. I'm not sure if we've seen nostalgia hit this early for a particular generation. It could be we have a lot of cool material things to be nostalgic about (the 80's was loaded with cool toys and cartoons that previous generation lacked in those kinds of numbers). It could be that we started in relatively simple times (pre-internet) and saw things get really complex with technology and the ramifications it brings. It could be, said technology has allowed us access to those cool old things (i.e. Ebay). Whatever the case, our group may be nostalgic for a longer duration keeping the value up longer.

I feel unrereleased and rare/valuable cars will hold their value longer of course. What will drop are the old cars that have been rereleased and sold in high numbers. Right now, someone outside the hobby, but "in the know" like a antique dealer may want a fair amount of money for an old Blackfoot, being aware there is a market for these things and nostalgia is hot now. Things like this will see price drops first thanks to rereleases, sheer numbers and the members in the hobby getting older.

Our little group will shrink. Nostalgia for an era is technically finite to those that lived through it. Not everyone comes back to the hobby so not everyone wants that old Tamiya they had as a kid. Some of us leave the hobby. Less demand, less value. Honestly, I think rereleases have a more immediate effect on price reduction over the relatively slow process of us dying out.

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In the 1:1 classic car world, prices for old collectible automobiles will generally start to rise once a car reaches 30+ years, because people tend to buy their childhood dream cars for reasons that have been discussed at length elsewhere, and because at 40+, they generally enter the most financially stable period of their lives. 

This takes some time to catch on, so nostalgia for a certain model of car won't be in full swing until it's about 40 years old, when most buyers are around 50. That's the period where everything goes and even junk fetches top $$$. 

Around 50+, prices will start to stagnate, because most nostalgia buyers, now around 60, will be done (re) living their childhood dreams by then. Only the prices for the very best examples, the ones that appeal to real collectors, usually continue to rise, with junk often rapidly losing value. 

Around 60+, prices drop for the majority of cars, because the buyers, now 70+, are selling rather than undertaking more purchases. Now only a handful, the really pristine examples, will see further increases in value. 

Take 60s Mopar muscle for example - mostly ignored in the 80s, an underground favorite in the 90s, hot in the 00s, insanely expensive in the early 10s, stagnating or even dropping ever since. Still expensive, the very best cars still rising, but in general fading away. These cars are so expensive that younger buyers are no longer able to afford them, while the old are losing interest. And those cars are getting really, really old. Now only the truly legendary cars will prevail. 

If course, there's a 10-20 year spread, as not every car fan jumps to a purchase on his 40th birthday. Some buy at 35, some at 45, some much later, but in the end, they all grow old. It'll be probably another 10 years before late 60 muscle nostalgia wanes completely, giving the era a good 30-35 year nostalgia re-run. 

So far, this has been an inevitable development. Pre-war cars are all but dead, 50s are dying, 60s are stagnating, but the 70s are on the rise. 

Long story short, RC cars aren't all that different, but at only one 10th of effort and expenses, meaning buyers will get in younger, but maybe not hang around as long. At some point in any case, the really old cars will fade away, because no-one who remembers them from their childhood is still buying, and because they will be so far out of date that maintaining or running them is no longer simple, affordable or even fun. 

Once that happens, prices will inevitably drop. Just maybe not for the very best cars, and that means NIB original releases. Just "good" cars, in the long run, will become affordable again, but there probably won't be too many buyers. 

By the way, there are even real 1:1 collector's cars with serious re-re-like competition, think "Mustang" here, and if anything, the 1:1 re-res have boosted the originals' value. We've yet to see if that works for RC cars as well. 

I'd say Tamiya cars are safe for at least another 10 years, but at some point, the early stuff's value will inevitably start to decline. 

Yeah I know, it's basically what Saito2 said, only I managed to use a lot more words.

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Yes, it is a cycle like all collectibles.  Re releases though have a big impact, for most a rere is just as good if not better given the price point.   Some purists will only value the original more but that circle will remain tight and they can continue to trade them back and forth at some perceived value to them. 

And yes, they will decline, all collecting goes in cycles and tend to be built around nostalgic childhood/high school memories.  Eventually you get so old though your priorities of reliving those memories get taken over by health and realizing we may not have much time left.  Then the value of the collectibles once high to you tend to fade away and more intangible things matter more for the remaining time you have left. 

Morbid for a Tamiya forum, but true :D

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My prediction is that any kits that I want will remain incredibly expensive, or continue to rise, whereas anything I buy for an inflated collector price will immediately be re-released, or else six more will appear the following week, in better shape, for less money. ;)

Seriously, though, I would not expect to see a drop for another decade or two in the real blue-chip kits (NIB Blazing Blazer and the like), because so many of them will need to be pried from the cold dead hands of the current owners, or at the very least when they move to a retirement community. These things are small compared to actual cars, so a massive collection is easier to keep around. They have no need to sell, yet.

But that time will come, and it's going to be very interesting to see what happens to some of those gigantic collections when the owners are no longer around, or are forced to sell. When their beloved collection of new-in-box kits are reduced to nothing but line items in an estate auction catalog, I can't imagine that they will still be "worth" anywhere near as much (especially when there are multiples of the same kit).  I'm expecting to find some real bargains out there to build and enjoy in my retirement...

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I dont know wheather that s reassuring or creepy after reading ! 

I feel elated that maybe just maybe I will be able to "inherit" some kits that I can t afford in the future from what you said but now I feel like some kind of carrion scavenger waiting in earnest !!! The black vulture of tamiyas they ll be calling us soon. 

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It's a tough question.

 

And the answer has already been covered in terms of that generational nostalgia, and whether it will be lacking for future generations.

One thing that may increase the value of vintage kits, is the fact that there will be less and less of them.

 

If there are 100 NIB Vintage Hotshot's left in the world, how many will there be in 10 years? 20 years? As some owners decide to build there will be less and less of them, which in theory should increase their value. A vintage kit is one of a kind, it will never ever be reproduced vintage style so it's special. There will come a day when there are only a few kits left of every type of model, I'm assuming that owners at that point will be able to command a large sum for them. 

 

But again I think there will be limits to what someone is willing to pay for a toy car kit. But we will see. I often wonder what my Mk1 Hotshot NIB would be worth in 20 years if I somehow managed to hold onto it. Will it all die out by then? Who knows.

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I think the thing that has been alluded to in this thread which I find the most....depressing I guess, is thta over time these cars will be undriveable due to sheer age and spares availability.
They'll just end up as shelvers, the ones that survive anyway.

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Interesting thread guys.

The big question for me is the impact of re re.

Everyone assumes it’s negative because they think short term - but what if it’s introduced a new generation to love 70s / 80s classics ... who will eventually crave the true ‘originals’ when they’re 40+ and can afford them ?

And if they (understandably) want to experience how it really felt back in the day vs shelving eye candy,  re re also works there ... because it refills spares, backfills complimentary electronics and creates new hop ups that help legacy kit remain drive-able ?

If anything, modes that haven’t been re re’d (including NIB) might then suffer - which could humble current prices of vintage 3 speeds (Hi Lux / Blazer) amongst others ?

To be fair, I don’t own boxed originals of both for value - and won’t be selling either soon - but I can easily see the day where my vintage SRBs (full set), Bruiser and Mountaineer eventually overtake the Hi Lux / Blazer ... (ironically) because they’ve been re re’d ?

Maybe even my vintage Sand Rover + Holiday Buggy too - although I suspect they’re too simplistic  ... views welcome ?

Whether I collect beyond my era - e.g. the Super Shot and/or Avante series - won’t be down to hedging value across model series ... it will be a passion for restoring / building  Tamiya’s evolution after I abandoned the hobby to chase girls :) 

Or I might even go back before my first  1979 build - and into early Porsche’s. If only to own and rebuild the first two EVER !

Whatever happens - value rarely anchors itself in logical places.

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Re-re is what brought me back to RC and Tamiya after more than two decades, and re-re is what made it possible for me to obtain all my childhood dream kits in relatively little time at very relatively little cost, and re-re is what I run hard with no remorse. Finally, re-re is what makes me want NIB stuff now, to answer your question. 

Re-release might initially hurt the prices for original kits, when buyers who had no choice but to buy an original kit before choose to  take the easy route. Then again, expensive original kits alone won't bring too many people back into this whole thing - people who will start out re-re, but will eventually, hopefully, develop an interest in the original releases... which, in turn, should increase demand for original stuff, and hence prices. 

 

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I think that prices will remain relatively static for a long while yet. We're not seeing rafts of new members joining the forum here pushing a demand for vintage NIB kits, and re-re are undeniably making a bit of nostalgia affordable, but also easy fun. Very old NIB kits are still deteriorating with age inside the boxes no matter how well they are sealed. Plastic becomes brittle and rubber tires harden. With the example of the MK1 hotshot, myself personally, I would not buy a vintage NIB kit over the re-re, even if I could by them for the same price, due to age of the plastic and rubber, and that if you want to build and run the car the re-re is going to be more reliable. I know that for some they've got to have the genuine vintage item that's 100% correct, but I think people will be unlikely to buy a kit like that and build it. So I think the numbers of NIB vintage kits in circulation will remain relatively static as I would expect them to trade owners without actually being built. As time marches on the number of us who had these cars as kids will dwindle, which will potentially reduce demand, and if the world economy declines there will be fewer people prepared to spend large sums of cash on nostalgia.

On a less serious note, add to all this the fact that 1:1 electric cars are becoming more popular, it won't be many more years before you can buy a second hand electric car for the 4 figure sums that some of the really rare NIB kits are priced at, at which point I'd rather have an electric car I can sit in. :)

The next method for Tamiya to cash in on the re-re market will be to collaborate with Toyota or Nissan and build 1:1 re-res with the guts from one of their electric cars. :lol: Kit cars were popular in the 90's in the UK, they'll come back again sooner or later............ ;)

   

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Love the ambition @MadInventor but lots of us driving 1:1 Tamiya electric is frankly nuts !

It might happen small scale (maybe over the next 5 yrs for people prepared to triple their NIB value ?) but real life trips down memory lane will otherwise be VR / AR - without the need to spend $$$ on 1:1 cars ... and it will happen inside 2 yrs.

Cheaper, quicker, simpler.

And if I’m right, what happens to vintage r/c ? 

For me, we’d be back to a circular debate on legacy value ... and if this thread has any legs, it ought to become a friendly forum to put all of the above in quick context ?

So (bearing in mind all that’s been said) what do we think X is worth now - and (possibly) what would we pay for it immediately ... to stop price manipulation / bull****

On 1/19/2019 at 11:42 PM, MadInventor said:

I think that prices will remain relatively static for a long while yet. We're not seeing rafts of new members joining the forum here pushing a demand for vintage NIB kits, and re-re are undeniably making a bit of nostalgia affordable, but also easy fun. Very old NIB kits are still deteriorating with age inside the boxes no matter how well they are sealed. Plastic becomes brittle and rubber tires harden. With the example of the MK1 hotshot, myself personally, I would not buy a vintage NIB kit over the re-re, even if I could by them for the same price, due to age of the plastic and rubber, and that if you want to build and run the car the re-re is going to be more reliable. I know that for some they've got to have the genuine vintage item that's 100% correct, but I think people will be unlikely to buy a kit like that and build it. So I think the numbers of NIB vintage kits in circulation will remain relatively static as I would expect them to trade owners without actually being built. As time marches on the number of us who had these cars as kids will dwindle, which will potentially reduce demand, and if the world economy declines there will be fewer people prepared to spend large sums of cash on nostalgia.

On a less serious note, add to all this the fact that 1:1 electric cars are becoming more popular, it won't be many more years before you can buy a second hand electric car for the 4 figure sums that some of the really rare NIB kits are priced at, at which point I'd rather have an electric car I can sit in. :)

The next method for Tamiya to cash in on the re-re market will be to collaborate with Toyota or Nissan and build 1:1 re-res with the guts from one of their electric cars. :lol: Kit cars were popular in the 90's in the UK, they'll come back again sooner or later............ ;)

   

 ?

Does that appeal guys ?

If so, I’ll go first in thinking a 1976 Porsche is worth no more than £1100 with box / manual ? Happy to be disabused :) 

Hope you all have fun !

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I can't really comment further as I don't have any NIB kits, vintage or otherwise, I have to build everything once the box arrives in the house :), but I can't bring myself to pay those sort of prices for a collectors item. The most expensive kit I bought was Jagdpanther, and that was over 10 years ago now, so couldn't justify one at the prices they are now. 

It's worth pointing out though, that we are in a global market for these kits, so I'd value them in something other UK pounds, as I think a pound is not going to buy as much outside of the UK by the end of year as it does now. If you value the NIB Porsche at £1100, that's roughly 6 re-re hotshot kits :)

 

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Another forum focused on vintage RC10's has a long standing policy of not asking "what is this worth".  It is enforced and I like it.  Like all things, ask the price you want, if someone pays it that was the value at that moment in time.  

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3 hours ago, RCvet said:

Another forum focused on vintage RC10's has a long standing policy of not asking "what is this worth".  It is enforced and I like it.  Like all things, ask the price you want, if someone pays it that was the value at that moment in time.  

True this. Usually the market dictates values and prices. There was someone here in Australia recently that had a whole bunch of kits NIB for sale at well over double market value, he even included a big story about the kits and how he purchased all the kits way back in 1987, which then he was hoping would add to the value of the kit since it was the original owner, I possibly would have believed the guy had I not noticed my Hotshot 2 NIB that I sold him 2 years ago in the collection of kits! In other words no he did not buy it in 1987 lol. I checked the kit against my old pics for flaws, and it matched up exactly, and I remember posting the kit to the area where he was from too.

 

I really don't know why some people feel the need to lie and make up big stories in the hope of adding $$$ to the value of a kit. I seriously doubt anyone would have bought the kits for the asking price, he wanted $3000aud for a sealed grasshopper!!

 

in 5 years he has the most expensive NIB kits I had ever seen. 

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Lie or not I am not sure why he would even think that would add value.  Presumably every NIB original kit was bought by someone new.  Unless you are a famous RC persona or driver who cares.

 

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Interesting - my goal in suggesting honest views on pricing was precisely the opposite @RCvet @kasparov.

It was about trusting informed opinion to counter any 8ull**** and relying on an intelligent market to expose resellers ... all whilst trying to add context to a nostalgic question. 

Banning anything generally creates an unregulated problem - and the RC10 fora approach likely didn’t work ... whether they admit it or not. 

For me, TC is full of people who dwarf my knowledge on a subject we all love - and I can’t think of anywhere else that pricing could be discussed openly, amicably and with no fear of nonsense.

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I hear ya, I just think it is often difficult to establish true value.  We are a dedicated bunch but relatively small by comparison to other collectibles I think.  Or let's say the stars align and I decide to give some guy $1000 for a NIB whatever because I want it then and there.  And some guy comes along and says I overpaid or the seller is dishonest.  I might feel at the time it was the right move and be OK.

Exposing dishonest people is a great idea but deciding value for someone else is difficult at best.  I may think the Dynastorm is the end all be all and will pay anything for one and another guy has zero attachment to it and thinks it is worthless.  Whose right?   Me of course  :D

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Lol @RCvet - and agree we’ve all got stuff close to our heart. 

I’ve got complete vintage builds of a Sand Rover and Holiday Buggy - with every period accessory and 100% complete down to boxes, manuals and part sprues.

Why ? Because I made a mess building both for the first time w/o my Dad as a kid ... before finally getting a Super Champ (sort of) right. 

These days, I’ve probably spent close to £600 rebuilding and completing each ... but they’re stunning - and (to respect the question asked) I reckon they’re probably worth a bit over half that to someone else ? 

Knowing if that’s right doesn’t make me unhappy they’re worth less than my investment - it just helps me know what to insure stuff for !

And if I know I’ve objectively overspent - that fine. Like most here, we aren’t in it for the money.

Just knowing where I stand helps me keep my collection alive by moving pieces in / out (normally In here) w/o anyone feeling sore. 

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20 hours ago, RCvet said:

I hear ya, I just think it is often difficult to establish true value.  We are a dedicated bunch but relatively small by comparison to other collectibles I think.  Or let's say the stars align and I decide to give some guy $1000 for a NIB whatever because I want it then and there.  And some guy comes along and says I overpaid or the seller is dishonest.  I might feel at the time it was the right move and be OK.

Exposing dishonest people is a great idea but deciding value for someone else is difficult at best.  I may think the Dynastorm is the end all be all and will pay anything for one and another guy has zero attachment to it and thinks it is worthless.  Whose right?   Me of course  :D

Exactly right, you can't pinpoint the exact value but there are value ranges that we have to work with that the market has shown us the last 5 or 10 years. Rarity and condition of the kit or car play it's role. 

Sometimes when a collector really wants a rare kit they may pay huge sums of money for it, that others would not. I did for a Hotshot Mk1, and I have heard that Black Porsche NIB in mint condition have exchanged hands for over $10,000usd, which would make it by far and away the most expensive Tamiya kit. Would others pay $10k for a kit? No chance, usually because it's simply not affordable, and they could go buy a real car with that kind of money. 

 

I really wonder what all these kits will be worth that make if unbuilt in say 20 years time or longer. Will the next generation care that it's vintage? 

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I doubt it, it's always about your own childhood.  30 years from now a 45 yr. old is 15 now and into whatever the current car is, he/she could care less about 1980-1990.  No different than I treasure real car's of the 80's and think it crazy what people paid for cars of the 60's and you see the shift in the market.  The 60's muscle cars guys are frankly getting really old and dying off and cars of the 80's and 90's are now going up.  My dad looks at a Sierra Cosworth and does not get it the same way I look at a 1967 Camaro (his dream) and do not get it.  Always been the case. 

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On ‎1‎/‎29‎/‎2019 at 2:35 AM, RCvet said:

I doubt it, it's always about your own childhood.  30 years from now a 45 yr. old is 15 now and into whatever the current car is, he/she could care less about 1980-1990.  No different than I treasure real car's of the 80's and think it crazy what people paid for cars of the 60's and you see the shift in the market.  The 60's muscle cars guys are frankly getting really old and dying off and cars of the 80's and 90's are now going up.  My dad looks at a Sierra Cosworth and does not get it the same way I look at a 1967 Camaro (his dream) and do not get it.  Always been the case. 

But what if the 15 year old has a father that was into Vintage Tamiya? And as a young kid, the father gave him a hornet or a hotshot to play with?

Then that too will give the next gen some nostalgia. The only difference is it has been passed on. So when that kid grows up he will remember the RC cars that his father gave him and it should stir up feelings of Nostgalgia :)

 

I think this would happen in many cases. Though the vintage side of it will die down in 20 years there should still be some enthusiasts that have had the vintage hobby passed on to them when they were young. And hopefully they will pass it on to their kids, I certainly will if I have a son in the next year or two.

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