Petrol 1:1 cars. The future?

[DrGoatboy]

So I am a major petrol head. I have had a lot more 1:1 cars than I have RC cars, and currently drive a lotus Evora which is a dream car for me...

However the future of road transport is changing, the days of the internal combustion engine are coming to an end. 

So what does that mean for those petrol cars that are already on the road? Obviously there will still have to be petrol stations for a good while beyond the ICE ban, maybe even forever.

But what happens to values of ICE cars? My gut feeling is the everyday cars value will quickly drop as it gets unfashionable to drive them, but what about those cars that are a bit more special or unusual. I'm thinking classics (or future classic) could go up in value as people yearn for Old fashioned motoring, and the thrill of an hydrocarbon driven engine.

I've seen this discussed on various car sites but the concensus is always biased towards the longevity of ICE cars, so I was wondering what the folks of tamiya club thought?

Would be great to get your views ☺️

[Bash]

I think a lot of it is going to depend on where you can drive an ICE car. Some cities in Europe have banned older diesel powered cars from city centers, so I can certainly see that happening to all ICE cars in the next 10-15 years. I have thought about this a lot, since I will probably be purchasing my 2nd car in the next year or so. I totally could make an EV work for me, since when I'm at home or uni I rarely drive more than 30 miles round trip, but home to Uni is 50 miles one way and involves driving on the highway and over hills, both of which absolutely kill the range of a cheap EV like a Nissan Leaf or a BMW i3, since I can't afford a Tesla or a Porsche Taycan. Back to the original question, I believe that normal cars like Civics, Focuses, ETC will be worth scrap value in the near future, while some classic cars will still be worth something. (This also depends on your definition of a classic car). We will know a bit more about the future of the classic car market I believe when the JDM and classic 4x4 bubbles burst, since both are super hot right now. 

[markbt73]

My hope is that ICE cars stick around but are relegated to playthings. People still ride horses, even though cars took over as the primary form of personal transport. I could see the same thing happening: EVs (or fuel cell cars) become dominant, as IC fades into the background and becomes a hobby.

I would also like to see two things happen with EV development: more focus on conversions for existing ICE cars, and more taking advantage of the flatness and modularity of an electric platform. I like the "skateboard" idea, and it would be amazing to see bespoke coachbuilding become a thing again at the top end of the market, and at the bottom end, I think there's a way to create bolt-in electric conversions for existing cars, which would get more fuel-burning engines off the road quicker.

Personally, I'd happily drive an electric car daily, as long as I can have an ICE car for weekend fun, and as long as the EV doesn't try to drive for me, and doesn't have a %$#!!!! iPad for a dashboard (looking at you, Tesla). But I will never again make a car payment; I absolutely refuse. Which means I'll never have an EV until they depreciate enough to be bought for cash, or unless I'm able to convert an existing car for a reasonable price.

And I absolutely love the emerging trend of converting classic cars to EVs. But that's largely because I hate modern car styling. Give me the latest and greatest technology, but styling from the '60s or 70s.

I also believe the whole self-driving thing is a dead end, not to mention pointless. Public transit exists (though it's woefully inadequate here in the US) for those who don't want to or can't drive. We should be more focused on expanding public transit and improving driver's education, and less focused on trying to build Jonny Cabs. If they insist on pushing the autonomous vehicle thing, it needs to be limited to fixed routes in dedicated lanes and not be allowed to intermingle with human-driven vehicles. There's simply too much that can happen, and no algorithm is ever going to be able to take it all into account.

[Mad Ax]

I think we'll see more restrictions on where you can drive ICE cars.  At the moment there are places in the UK where you can only drive an ICE car if it is less than so many years old (i.e. compliant with certain modern regs).  Recently there was talk of implementing that in the nearest city to me, although it has been dropped as the ancient road network (limited by geography as much as road planning) forces people to drive through the city centre to reach the region's biggest hospital, or take a very long detour.  There was a fear that lower-income people (who can't afford newer cars) would be forced to do much longer journeys to get to the hospital than those with higher income.

My daily driver is a Nissan Elgrand.  It's a large MPV (small van size) with a 3.5 litre petrol auto, it does around 20mpg (proper English gallons), less in town, a little better on a long run.  It costs a lot to do journeys but it's been converted to a camper and is fitted out for RC racing, so it's ideal for me.  Since lockdown, everybody has been after camper vans so the price of old vans has soared.  If I was forced to replace the Elgrand due to pollution restrictions, I don't know what else I'd get.  There's no way I could afford a modern van.

Add to that - there's no alternative fuel option for a small van.  So even if I could raise the funds for something newer, I'd still be restricted to ICE.

The issue with EVs (as we all know) is the combined problem of limited range and long charge times.  As long as we're still clinging to the concept of private vehicle ownership, this will be a problem.  Even with advances in technology, there's only so much we can do.

Hydrogen cells could be an option that allow us to drive EVs for longer journeys, but they have their own drawbacks.

Another option is to consider add-on upgrades for cars - for example, an EV that is capable of doing the <50 miles that the majority of us do the majority of the time, but with an option to hire an extended battery pack or even a clip-in ICE unit that can take the car on longer distances.  Imagine a 4-wheel EV that has a plug at the back to accept a power unit containing an ICE and two powered wheels.  That could get you on longer journeys.  There would be hire stations with both arrive-and-drive and pre-booked options.  One-way hire would be more common (instead of the premium you get charged by hire franchises these days).

Now imagine if each car also had a plug at the front.  Now it can plug into the back of the car ahead.  A car moving as a train is more efficient, both in terms of fuel usage and space usage.  Traffic problems could be reduced if cars were attached together.  Obviously these cars would have to be self-driven, but with a 'detatch' option that separates your car from the middle of the train if you want to head a different way.  These trains could also have battery cars that attach to boost the train, so individual car batteries aren't depleted while training.

Combine this with a centralised traffic control system which will keep cars in trains if they are going to similar destinations, and can also adjust the speed of cars so that give-way junctions are no longer needed, and you have a superb mass transit system that gives everyone the autonomy to go where they want when they want, reduce or eliminate junction collisions, and (in the post-Covid world) not force us all into each other's breathing space (like busses and trains do).

There are some serious drawbacks to this idea.

1) it makes no allowance for existing road traffic (including cyclists, pedestrians etc who will still exist after everybody has converted to a train car).

2) all cars would have to be compatible.  This isn't an insurmountable problem but it does mean:

3) once the system is made, we're locked in.  Any upgrades must be backwards compatible

4) we must have the centralised traffic control computer.  Individual self-driving cars with individual brains can't communicate well enough for this to work

5) massive up-front cost to develop and install

but if we ever abandon Earth and set up colonies on Mars, I hope this (or something like it) is how we do it.

[Lee76]

2 hours ago, Mad Ax said:

1) it makes no allowance for existing road traffic (including cyclists, pedestrians etc who will still exist after everybody has converted to a train car).

2) all cars would have to be compatible.  This isn't an insurmountable problem but it does mean:

3) once the system is made, we're locked in.  Any upgrades must be backwards compatible

4) we must have the centralised traffic control computer.  Individual self-driving cars with individual brains can't communicate well enough for this to work

5) massive up-front cost to develop and install

Right, let’s nail this..

1: the outside lane on multiple lane roads is always for car trains. Ideally a 3 lane minimum system. Since all cars are smart and know their destination they will know which train they can step into based on distance. 4 wheel steering means cars can enter and exit anywhere in parallel.

2 and 3: Electro magnets.. can attract and repel vehicles contactless towing with high phasing perhaps?.. chop and change, retro fit, each car can have its own version and have an adjustable arm to couple, again, the cars know what each other is so can have adjustment both ends.

4: well, i think they can, interactions like the huge swarms of starlings, at the end of the day, each car only needs to really know what its immediate neighbour is doing. The train will have a collective intelligence of all the cars in it, destinations etc.. so any car that comes into range can ping its intent and get told to join in or jog on..

5: the costs for the cars themselves, developing the tech and AI would probably be the cheap part, most of it already exists to be honest. It would be (especially in the UK) the terrible roads.. ideally you’d relay all the Motorways and A roads.. this time with some proper planning! So systematically re-doing all the roads would be a huge expensive pain.. the answer to this is... sky cars, all of the above ideas with no roads... Now this bit would require more development cost and as you mentioned a centralised traffic control.

 

[speedy_w_beans]

Generally inventions and technology displace previous inventions and technology when it makes economic sense.  When the initial purchase price, range, and charge/fill times are roughly equal or better than ICE vehicles across all weather/temperature conditions then we'll see more of a shift towards EVs.  I know we should include running costs, maintenance, insurance, as well (basically look at the total cost of ownership), but many people don't think as deeply about the running costs as the first three parameters.

The topic of autonomy could/should be viewed as something separate from the powertrain choice; either an EV or an ICE vehicle can be controlled by an autonomous solution.  Like @markbt73, I also think autonomy is a dead end and won't see the light of day in our lifetime unless we completely rebuild our road system into a rail system.  There are too many uncontrolled situations, corner cases, and evolving signage/landscape to have 100% confidence a system is trained completely.  I wouldn't trust it.  A controlled environment like a rail system is a different story.

One other hot topic in the automotive business is connectivity.  Cellular modems are getting embedded in more and more cars, with some projections suggesting up to 60-70% penetration rate in vehicles in the next few years.  The automakers are finding clever uses for the connectivity including lease/rental enforcement, diagnostics and remote firmware updates, concierge services, general WiFi/wireless data access, data harvesting for engineering design improvement, advertising, and more.

The way I see it is connectivity will become pervasive in the near future because automakers are finding ways to pay for it even if the end customer doesn't subscribe to the service.  The economics make sense for at least one party to fund it; it's even more lucrative if the end customer subscribes to the service.  The switch to EVs will again be dictated by economics, but that will mostly be tied to advances in battery science.  Once we hit $100 USD/kWh of capacity and 5-minute charge times then things get interesting.  Feels like another 10-15 years to reach that tipping point for EVs, and then it becomes a function of older cars aging out of the global fleet for another 10-15 years.  Autonomy is an unwieldy problem, though.  I really think more advances in ADAS levels 1 and 2 and formalized regulations driving automatic braking, lane keeping, adaptive cruise control, etc. will solve a good percentage of traffic collision/fatalities.  Current studies suggest around 60-70% effectiveness of these lower-level technologies.

Personally I don't want to give control to a fully autonomous solution; I like the act of driving.  I also don't want any connectivity; I prefer privacy, quiet, and no distractions.  But I would consider a change to an EV when the price is right.  Less maintenance and some inherent fun factor (low end torque) would make it appealing to me.

[SupraChrgd82]

I work in the environmental field and grew up with cars.  My parents met at the drag races in the '60's.  My commuters are a pair of V2 superbikes and my truck has 600hp big block.  I see the impact that air pollution makes, particularly in the Los Angeles basin.  The California liberals can drive electric cars and clean up the air, but I sure as heck don't want to see American Car Culture die or give up my ground pounding horsepower.   I see computerized electric nanny vehicles as a nuisance to work on and serve to breed incompetent drivers, although the fuel efficiency of an LS engine is incredible. The thunderous sound an open throttle makes is intoxicating, but we do "borrow the Earth from our children".  I'm torn between the 2 sides regarding the environmental aspect.

[DrGoatboy]

Thanks all some interesting thoughts there. Don't forget selling hydrocarbon powered cars will be outlawed in just over 9 years. It's coming and it's not far away. 

Personally I think hydrogen fuel cells is what will make this a reality long term. Planes won't fly on batteries in our lifetime (long haul) so the only viable alternative is going to be bio fuel or hydrogen. Bio fuel isn't sustainable long term as it takes up too much land. So producing green hydrogen is key. 

I work in the energy industry and there is increasingly a focus on hydrogen, I think its problems will be overcome quicker than trying to build a charging infrastructure particularly in places like the UK with an ageing road and home network that will be very hard to adapt....

But I digress...

Back to the question in hand, will petrol cars be worth nothing in 10 years time, or will collectable cars be worth more?

[MadInventor]

Will petrol cars be worth nothing in 10 years time ?

I think it depends on the car. The whole topic is wound up with peoples perceived impact of the car on planet, as well as their own health. There's also going to be a lot of impact from politics and vested interests from the oil industry.  I'm an ex-petrolhead, at one stage in my life I was simultaneously running 3 cars, a 5.0, 2.9, and 1.8 in the UK. Now I don't even own a car, I just use my other half's when I need to.  Realistically I think classic cars will continue to rise in value. Even if ICE cars are banned, cars like old Mustangs, Camaros, etc will still live on with electric conversions. People will still want the classic look of the car and will see them as an investment  I think diesels will be more or less dead in ten years, because of the amount of carcinogens they pump out,  hybrid vehicles are a viable alternative with similar if not better fuel economy, and for people doing short journeys electric cars are now coming along with 200+miles range. 

There is more of a shift now towards hybrid and electric vehicles for cars that require good mileage, and the basic idea behind the technology is inherently better than an ICE engine on it's own. Of course, people may not be given much choice in the matter if governments legislate against particular technologies. Whilst somewhere like Hong Kong might legislate against diesels to help clean up the air, the orange 'eccentric' in the white house might ban electric cars in the US to further the cause of the fossil fuel industry.

The chuck in a curve ball such as coronavirus. I'm now working from home thanks to that. many others are as well. The mileage I will do in my car (normal ICE petrol) this year is going to be sub 1000 miles. Absolutely no point in me changing that car for anything else any time soon. A tank of fuel currently lasts me about 3 months.

Thinking about the value of cars take a look at Bruntingthorpe airfield. Its normally crammed with thousands of unsold vehicles, because supply is outstripping demand. 

 

5 hours ago, markbt73 said:

My hope is that ICE cars stick around but are relegated to playthings. People still ride horses, even though cars took over as the primary form of personal transport. I could see the same thing happening: EVs (or fuel cell cars) become dominant, as IC fades into the background and becomes a hobby.

I would also like to see two things happen with EV development: more focus on conversions for existing ICE cars, and more taking advantage of the flatness and modularity of an electric platform. I like the "skateboard" idea, and it would be amazing to see bespoke coachbuilding become a thing again at the top end of the market, and at the bottom end, I think there's a way to create bolt-in electric conversions for existing cars, which would get more fuel-burning engines off the road quicker.

Personally, I'd happily drive an electric car daily, as long as I can have an ICE car for weekend fun, and as long as the EV doesn't try to drive for me, and doesn't have a %$#!!!! iPad for a dashboard (looking at you, Tesla). But I will never again make a car payment; I absolutely refuse. Which means I'll never have an EV until they depreciate enough to be bought for cash, or unless I'm able to convert an existing car for a reasonable price.

And I absolutely love the emerging trend of converting classic cars to EVs. But that's largely because I hate modern car styling. Give me the latest and greatest technology, but styling from the '60s or 70s.

I also believe the whole self-driving thing is a dead end, not to mention pointless. Public transit exists (though it's woefully inadequate here in the US) for those who don't want to or can't drive. We should be more focused on expanding public transit and improving driver's education, and less focused on trying to build Jonny Cabs. If they insist on pushing the autonomous vehicle thing, it needs to be limited to fixed routes in dedicated lanes and not be allowed to intermingle with human-driven vehicles. There's simply too much that can happen, and no algorithm is ever going to be able to take it all into account.

This ^^^^^ @markbt73 view gives me some hope that we are not heading towards a future where either a) Mad Max Fury Road proves to be a documentary, or b) we all end riding camels, because horses don't survive well in desert conditions.  I fully admit I've been watching too many documentaries on Netflix about the environment, but if we don't stop thinking that we can solve the planets' problems by building and selling and consuming we're seriously knackered. The idea of taking existing cars and retro-fitting EV is an excellent one in my view, as you're keeping cool cars on the road, and not consuming resources building new cars. EV can be an inherently simple technology, we all use it in our RC cars. Just think how much re-use you could get out of cars if the motor industry took a leaf out the RC car industry and standardised on motor fitments, interfaces between battery, driver, and motor (Essentially the ESC), and also battery standards. It would leave car manufacturers free to concentrate on aesthetics and interiors of their vehicles, whilst electronics companies such as Bosch could focus on mass production of motors, batteries, and for want of a better term, ESCs. It would leave each company to focus on what they do best. If you look at our hobby, we can keep old cars going because the motor fitment hasn't changed in 30years, battery sizes haven't changed much, and I can still use a modern ESC with a 30 year old 27Mhz RX. 

Emerging EV technology should make cars a lot cheaper to build. there are far fewer components in an electric motor than an ICE engine with it's gearbox. If the world does towards EV, garages are going to have to think about new ways to extract cash from customers, as there's basically nothing to do during a service - No brake fluid, coolant, engine oil, trans oil, air filters, oil filters, or auxillary belt drives to change. Brakes last a lot longer thanks to re-gen braking, there's no exhaust to fall off. What's left, filling the washer bottle and greasing the door hinges ?

 

 

[Wooders28]

Personally, I don't think IC power is just going to disappear overnight. Yes there's talks of a ban, but I can see that getting pushed further back as the deadline approaches. 

The big part of new car sales, is the 'company car' , so unless the range is seriously increased, or quicker charging introduced (and all of us in this forum, know the risks of quick charging lithium cells!) , I can't envisage super high sales.

I think the, hybrid , will be commonplace, supposedly best of both worlds? 

The infrastructure is setting up anywhere near as quick enough, yeah there's a couple of charge points at motorway services and in big cities, but no where near enough, north of Glasgow, you'd struggle, and yes ,you can charge at home, but not if living on the top floor of a block of flats.

Over my driving lifetime, cars have changed quite dramatically, a bit like the boiling a frog, analogy. Power steering (don't like it..), power assisted brakes (don't like them..) , No cars have drum brakes all round anymore , and more and more taken away from the driver, (BEWARE, bit of a rant....)  can't even give the brake a dab with the left foot on the current daily, without it going into a limp mode 🤬, and what the $#@€ is the electric handbrake about!! (Almost run over the wife's feet ,as she was strapping our baby in, as it decided it was time to set off...😳) also, when did ICE swap from , In Car Entertainment?? Do you get decent ICE in an electric car? 🤷‍♂️

Value wise, cars always loose their value for a bit, then start to rise , just think that'll start a bit earlier, as people who don't live in the cities, have to keep buring dead dinosaurs.

 

 

One company that has impressed me, is ,'  https://www.electricclassiccars.co.uk/'. Beautiful restorations of old tin, with powerful electric motors stuffed in, without all the, head up display, self driving rubbish. 

[KEV THE REV]

On 9/30/2020 at 11:52 PM, Wooders28 said:

One company that has impressed me, is ,'  https://www.electricclassiccars.co.uk/'. Beautiful restorations of old tin, with powerful electric motors stuffed in, without all the, head up display, self driving rubbish. 

I think this where we will end up in time . Fuel stations will eventually disappear so buying fuel will be tough , rather like buying coal is now to some extent . There are vintage American cars in Cuba that run with Lada engines as they can't get the spares to restore classic lumps and IC engines of any sort will be hard to source at some point in the future so it will be adapt , improvise , overcome - or go with the electric plan that is taking over

[markbt73]

I read this yesterday. It sounds like the conversion idea is taking hold; this is about a bolt-in electric motor and gearbox system, using a Tesla motor, designed to fit small-block Chevy engine mounts...

https://jalopnik.com/you-dont-really-have-an-excuse-anymore-1845245596

[KEV THE REV]

The future of NGTC / BTCC too I'm afraid . They are already experimenting with hybrid tech .

[Wooders28]

On 10/2/2020 at 7:37 PM, markbt73 said:

I read this yesterday. It sounds like the conversion idea is taking hold; this is about a bolt-in electric motor and gearbox system, using a Tesla motor, designed to fit small-block Chevy engine mounts...

https://jalopnik.com/you-dont-really-have-an-excuse-anymore-1845245596

Can't imagine that'll go down well, I've put a SBC in a Pontiac, and that didn't go down well?! 🙄😳 (and I'm the other side of the pond!)

The motor is the cheap bit, wait until you get the bill for the batteries!! 

 

[Toolmaker72]

The ban is on new car sales with petrol and Diesel engines.  Existing vehicles will still be used until they get crashed, scrapped etc though natural attrition they will gradually be replaced with electric vehicles.  Petrol and diesel I was always led to believe that they were by products of the chemical industries, so fuels won’t really become harder to find unless oil is left in the ground.  Current U.K. classic vehicles of 40 years old or more are exempt from emissions control and can drive within low pollution zones.  
Electric cars or there power supply still needs a breakthrough in technology or put slots in the roads like a full size scalextric track, never have to plug in and charge, then a 50 mile range battery would probably work just fine to take you down roads with no slots ☺️

[Lee76]

9 hours ago, Toolmaker72 said:

40 years old or more are exempt from emissions control

I applied this rule to myself. But only in the confines of my own home.

[DrGoatboy]

On 12/11/2020 at 9:53 PM, Toolmaker72 said:

The ban is on new car sales with petrol and Diesel engines.  Existing vehicles will still be used until they get crashed, scrapped etc though natural attrition they will gradually be replaced with electric vehicles.  Petrol and diesel I was always led to believe that they were by products of the chemical industries, so fuels won’t really become harder to find unless oil is left in the ground.  Current U.K. classic vehicles of 40 years old or more are exempt from emissions control and can drive within low pollution zones.  
Electric cars or there power supply still needs a breakthrough in technology or put slots in the roads like a full size scalextric track, never have to plug in and charge, then a 50 mile range battery would probably work just fine to take you down roads with no slots ☺️

Petrol and (to a lesser extent) diesel aren't really a by product of the chemical industry, but the process of refining oil normally gives other products and not just petrol. It varies depending on the type of oil used but other products produced may have a higher value than petrol though. Each product once distilled from crude oil normally has to go through other steps to make it into the finished product.

Slots in the road is an interesting concept. Might make overtaking a challenge. 

[Nobbi1977]

As electric comes in pay by the mile road pricing will also come in to offset the lost tax on petrol. ICE cars and bikes will be double hit as petrol prices rise and they get hit with road pricing as well.

People will keep “classics” for low mileage toys but ICE will die fairly quickly.

I will keep my ‘54 Ariel and maybe an “Iconic “ more modern bike but electric will take over the bulk of the duties I think.